Least Likely Near-Term
Year 1 (0–12 Mos)
18%
Discrete Risk (Now–Oct 2027)
Polymarket prices ~11% year-end crash risk. $800B–$1.2T in hyperscaler CapEx is already contracted, though YoY growth slows from 108% to 47%.
Most Likely Burst Window
Years 2–3 (2028–2029)
57%
Combined (32% Yr 2 + 25% Yr 3)
OpenAI's $162B cash buffer exhausts in 2028, data-center debt crosses $1.0T, and 2025–26 GPUs hit their 4-year $3.5T impairment cliff.
5-Yr Cumulative Odds
By Oct 2031
90%
vs. 10% Soft Landing
Includes 55% Selective Reset (80% of leveraged neoclouds consolidated by 2030 per Gartner) and 35% Hard Crash.
2031 AI Revenue Gap
Bain & Co. Math
$6.0T
Needed vs. $1.5T Proj.
2031 Monetization Coverage
$4.5T Shortfall
Select Institutional Baseline
AI CapEx Trajectory Overlay
Show projected CapEx & write-down curve
3. Custom Stress-Test Sliders
GPU Economic Lifespan:
4.5 Years (Base)
3.0 Yrs (Fast Obsolescence)
4.5 Yrs
7.0 Yrs (Long-Lived)
2031 AI Revenue Run-Rate:
$1.5T / $6.0T Needed
$0.8T (Stalled)
$1.5T (Bain Base)
$5.5T (Miracle)
Adjusting GPU depreciation speed or 2031 revenue dynamically shifts the hazard curve across all 5 years.
5-Year AI Bubble Burst Hazard Distribution & Cumulative Risk Peak Danger Window: Years 2–3 (57% Combined)
Click or hover any time horizon bar to inspect institutional catalysts in the forensic panel below
Low Risk (≤18%)
Peak Hazard (≥24%)
Cumulative Burst %
AI CapEx Index
SELECTED: YEAR 2 (OCT 2027 – OCT 2028)
Peak Danger Window: The Cash Exhaustion & $1T Debt Wall
Window Probability Breakdown
Discrete Risk (In Yr)
32%
Cumulative By End
50%
Unburst Survival Odds:
50%
Projected Annual CapEx:
$1.35 Trillion
Primary Risk Classification:
PEAK HAZARD (#1)
Grounded Institutional Catalysts & Balance Sheet Triggers
Full Horizon Schedule
Click any row to focus that window in the chart & inspector
Year-by-Year Probability Matrix across All Scenarios (2026–2031)
| Time Horizon | Calendar Window | Active Discrete % | Active Cumulative % | Base / Bear / Bull (Cum.) | Hazard Status | Key Institutional Catalyst |
|---|